Benefit from short-term safety assets
How does the new crown pneumonia outbreak affect the capital market?
Benefit from short-term safety assets
What concept stock does antiviral drug launch benefit from?
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Author unit: Haitong Macro First Financial is authorized to reprint from the WeChat public account “Jiang Chao Macro Bond Research”, which is abridged.
Original title: How does the new crown pneumonia epidemic affect the capital market?
The impact of short-term safe assets benefit shocks may deepen, and risk assets are at risk.
The epidemic situation of the new type of coronavirus pneumonia is grim, and we are confident to win the battle to prevent and control the epidemic.
But we must also think about what kind of impact this epidemic will have on the economy?
How will this shock be reflected in the capital market?
SARS has not hindered the economic recovery, and the long-term impact is huge and limited. From an annual perspective, the impact of the SARS event has changed the upward trend of economic growth in 2003, and its impact on prices has been very mild.High inflation, large-scale assets performance in line with the characteristics of the economic cycle, the stock market returns are still considerable.
From the perspective of the front and back, the traces left by the impact of the SARS event are not obvious. In fact, it is the result of a faster recovery after the impact of the economy. If the observation angle is sunk and refined, the impact of the SARS event and the subsequent economyThe repair process will become more clear.
The U-shaped trend of economic growth concentrated the impact for a quarter.
The annual economic growth in 2003 showed a clear “U-shaped” trend. The first quarter of the SARS epidemic spread in Guangdong, and its GDP growth rate for the quarter still reached 11.
A new high of 1%.
Instead of the impact of the model scenario on the economy began to appear in the second quarter, according to the preliminary calculations at that time, the GDP growth rate in the second quarter of 2003 was extended by more than three alternatives in the previous quarter.
With the solution of the epidemic situation, the economic growth rate in the third, fourth and second quarters rebounded rapidly. Although they did not exceed the period when the economy partially overlapped in the first quarter, they all exceeded the highest point of the quarterly GDP growth rate in 2002.
Therefore, it can be considered that the impact of the SARS epidemic on the economy was concentrated in the second quarter and then quickly repaired. This was only in response to the 2003 year GDP growth rate still reaching a record high in 8 years.
From the SARS perspective: the impact of the impact may be deepened, and the risk of assets at risk will have an impact on the economy and the asset market.
The short-term impact of new pneumonia, the growth has stabilized after the epidemic.
First of all, from the SARS experience, the epidemic event is a short-term shock and will not interrupt the medium-to-long-term trend of economic growth. The gradual economic growth trend in 2003 coincided with the trend of the quarter before the outbreak of the epidemic.
From this point of view, after the end of the new pneumonia epidemic, the medium-to-long-term economic growth characteristics will be similar to the fourth quarter of 2019 before the epidemic, while the economic growth rate of the fourth quarter of 2019 is stable at 6%, and the industrial growth rate has rebounded.The growth rate at the bottom of the recovery has been shown. Therefore, after the epidemic shock, the central and long-term economic growth center will advance to maintain stability.
In addition, from the experience of the SARS period, the impact of the epidemic shock on prices is relatively limited and does not constitute a basis for high inflation. However, the increase in pork prices caused by the decrease in supply has pushed it to a higher level, overlapping the Spring Festival holiday.The concentration of goods brought about by the prevention and control of the new pneumonia epidemic may continue to remain high in the short term, leading to risks that still need to be vigilant.
The impact of the epidemic has subsided and there will not be a strong lag effect.
How long will the outbreak last?
According to the experience during the SARS epidemic, the impact on the economy began before and after the policy overweight, and the impact on the economy ended with the epidemic basically showing that the number of confirmed cases has hardly increased, and of course, the number of suspected cases has been significantly reduced, andWill have a strong lag effect.
At present, it is difficult to accurately estimate when the new pneumonia epidemic has completely ended. According to our calculations, the epidemic is expected to reach its peak in early February. In this case, it should not develop into the second quarter of 2020.
If localities resume work smoothly after the holiday, the impact of the new pneumonia epidemic on the economy will be concentrated in the first quarter of 2020, especially in January and February.
The short-term impact of the epidemic is likely to exceed SARS. The cycle and structure are different.
In the case of SARS, the impact of the new pneumonia epidemic on the economy may deepen.
By the time of the SARS epidemic in 2003, it was in the rising cycle of the economy, and the current transformation of the conditions of the factors, the economy is changing from high-speed growth to high-speed growth interval; instead, more importantly, the experience of the SARS period showsThe impact of the epidemic on the tertiary industry and consumption is relatively significant, and the current internal economic structure has been significantly different from that in 2003. The tertiary industry accounted for nearly 54% in 2019, compared with only 42% in 2003.Investment is the main driving force, and the contribution rate of consumption to economic growth in 2019 is almost double that of investment. Therefore, the short-term impact of the epidemic on the economy may be large.
The rise of online consumer platforms has partially hedged the 武汉夜网论坛 epidemic.
Since the impact of the epidemic on the economy is mainly reflected in consumption, we must also note that the current consumption pattern is also very different from 2003.
Internet platforms represented by Taobao, JD.com, and Hungry? Are replacing the traditional offline sales channels. Online retail sales of physical goods have accounted for nearly one-fifth of the scale of retail sales of consumer goods. The 2003 SARS incident was virtually invisible.The development of these e-commerce platforms has been promoted. If these platforms can maintain non-snoring operations, and even maintain the level of 70% to 80% before the impact of the epidemic, then it can partially hedge the drag of the epidemic on consumption and even the economy.
Express delivery supports online consumption and can maintain vibration or 杭州桑拿 shock absorption.
However, the role of the online retail platform depends on convenient logistics. Therefore, the performance of the transportation industry, especially the logistics industry, in the epidemic situation is particularly important.
Due to the isolation and control needed to prevent and control the new pneumonia epidemic, various levels of traffic control measures have also been introduced, and the current internal traffic conditions have been developed much earlier than the SARS period in 2003. The impact of the epidemic on the civil aviation and railway passenger transport industriesGreater impact possible.
If the express delivery business can keep running under the circumstances that the epidemic prevention and control allows, we can weave out some consumer networks and slow down the impact of the economy. Monetary policy is moderately flexible and fiscal plays a role.
Since the benchmark is based on the SARS period, the impact of the epidemic on the economy may deepen, so how to choose the correct policy orientation?
Basically, it is quite similar to that during the SARS epidemic. Although there are no signs of overlap in the current economy, the gradual level is affected by pork prices, and there is also upward pressure. Therefore, monetary policy should not be relaxed.The tools are quite abundant, and the policy means can also be more flexible, such as a small interest rate reduction in stages, and the reduction of LPR interest rates to reduce social financing costs.
At the same time, we believe that fiscal policy can play a role. The 2003 budget actually adopted the method of “reducing income and reducing expenditures” and reduced the tax burden of certain industries. This is in line with our continuous active fiscal policy of reducing taxes and feesThe main idea is the same.
Under the impact of the new pneumonia epidemic, we can take advantage of the budget financing of government bonds to raise funds to further increase tax and fee reduction efforts.
Short-term safety assets benefit, and risk assets are at risk.
Affected by the impact of the epidemic, in the short term, safe assets will benefit the most. For example, gold has increased by nearly 4% this year, and national debt has also increased significantly in the near future.
However, if we look back at the asset performance during the SARS period in 2003, it shows the characteristics of overlapping periods that are consistent with the economic cycle at that time, not caused by epidemic factors.
Then, after the end of the new pneumonia epidemic, the recovery of transfer demand will drive economic growth to stabilize and improve. Asset performance will show the characteristics of a recovery period. Equity assets are expected to recover lost ground. This also means that the current adjustment of risk assets is at risk.