Three Gorges Water Conservancy (600116): Water in the flood season improves to improve performance Significant asset reorganization development growth space

Three Gorges Water Conservancy (600116): Water in the flood season improves to improve performance Significant asset reorganization development growth space

Incident Three Gorges Water Conservancy released the third quarter report of 2019, and net profit attributable to mothers decreased.

85% of Three Gorges Water Resources released the third quarter report of 2019, and the company achieved operating income in the first three quarters of 20198.

40 ppm, an increase of ten years.

81%; Realize net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies.

70 ppm, a reduction of 2 per year.

85%; expected average ROE is 5.

87%, a reduction of 0 per year.

40 units.

In the third quarter, it achieved operating income in a single quarter3.

09 million yuan, a decrease of 3 per year.

04%, net profit attributable to mother 0.

60 ppm, an increase of 68 per year.


Brief comment on the improvement of the self-power generation and the improvement of self-power generation during the flood season. The company is a local power company that integrates power 南京夜网论坛 generation and power supply. The power distribution business is concentrated in Wanzhou District, Chongqing City.

Due to the decrease in water supply in the basins of the company’s power plants in the first half of the year, the company gradually completed its power generation2.

2.3 billion kWh, a decrease of 39 per year.


After entering the flood season, the power output of the company’s hydropower station increased significantly, and the company achieved power generation in the third quarter in a single quarter3.

3.7 billion kWh, an increase of 45 in ten years.


The high growth of self-generating power has effectively reduced the company’s outsourcing power, and the company achieved a gross profit margin of 28 in the third quarter.

81%, an increase of 13 a year.

07 levels; realized gross profit of 0.南京龙凤网

8.9 billion, an increase of 0 in ten years.

3.9 billion.

The increase in self-generating power to promote the growth of gross profit of the main business is the most preliminary improvement of the company’s single quarter performance in the third quarter.

Significant asset reorganization is approved, which is expected to expand the growth space of the electricity sales business On October 15, 2019, the company’s major asset reorganization was approved by the SASAC of the State Council. The company intends to purchase Chongqing Changdian United Energy Co., Ltd. 88 by issuing shares and paying cash.

55% equity, 100% equity of Chongqing Liangjiang Changxing Power Co., Ltd.

Judging from the combined financial value of 58.

30,000 yuan, annual net profit is about 2.

7.3 billion; Changxing Power ‘s net assets are about 5.

5.3 billion, annual net profit is about 0.

08 thousand yuan.

At present, the matter has been cancelled by the CSRC, and the follow-up still needs to be reviewed by the State Council ‘s anti-monopoly law enforcement agency and approved by the CSRC. There is still some uncertainty.

If this major asset reorganization is successfully completed, Changdian United Energy and Liangjiang Changxing’s high-quality grid assets will help the company break through the development ceiling. The company is also expected to become the best carrier for the Three Gorges Group to build a power sales platform in the southwest region in the future.

On this basis, in the future, the company is also expected to lead the Three Gorges Hydropower into Chongqing, and the high-quality and low-cost outbound hydropower of the Three Gorges Group is also expected to reduce the company’s outsourced power costs.

Considering that the company’s power sales business is stable, the self-generation business has improved significantly after the water supply has improved in the flood season. Without considering the replacement of the major asset restructuring temporarily, we reasonably consider the replacement role of Three Gorges Power.0.

23, 0.30 and 0.

32 yuan.

We are optimistic about the huge development space brought by the Chongqing Electric Power Reform and the Three Gorges Group’s integration of the local power grid to maintain the buying level.

How does the new crown pneumonia outbreak affect the capital market?

Benefit from short-term safety assets

How does the new crown pneumonia outbreak affect the capital market?
Benefit from short-term safety assets

What concept stock does antiviral drug launch benefit from?

Come to Sina University of Finance and listen to the annual column “Business Day Financial Morning Post”, free trial before February 9!

  Author unit: Haitong Macro First Financial is authorized to reprint from the WeChat public account “Jiang Chao Macro Bond Research”, which is abridged.

  Original title: How does the new crown pneumonia epidemic affect the capital market?

The impact of short-term safe assets benefit shocks may deepen, and risk assets are at risk.

  The epidemic situation of the new type of coronavirus pneumonia is grim, and we are confident to win the battle to prevent and control the epidemic.

But we must also think about what kind of impact this epidemic will have on the economy?

How will this shock be reflected in the capital market?

  SARS has not hindered the economic recovery, and the long-term impact is huge and limited. From an annual perspective, the impact of the SARS event has changed the upward trend of economic growth in 2003, and its impact on prices has been very mild.High inflation, large-scale assets performance in line with the characteristics of the economic cycle, the stock market returns are still considerable.

From the perspective of the front and back, the traces left by the impact of the SARS event are not obvious. In fact, it is the result of a faster recovery after the impact of the economy. If the observation angle is sunk and refined, the impact of the SARS event and the subsequent economyThe repair process will become more clear.

  The U-shaped trend of economic growth concentrated the impact for a quarter.

The annual economic growth in 2003 showed a clear “U-shaped” trend. The first quarter of the SARS epidemic spread in Guangdong, and its GDP growth rate for the quarter still reached 11.

A new high of 1%.

Instead of the impact of the model scenario on the economy began to appear in the second quarter, according to the preliminary calculations at that time, the GDP growth rate in the second quarter of 2003 was extended by more than three alternatives in the previous quarter.

With the solution of the epidemic situation, the economic growth rate in the third, fourth and second quarters rebounded rapidly. Although they did not exceed the period when the economy partially overlapped in the first quarter, they all exceeded the highest point of the quarterly GDP growth rate in 2002.

Therefore, it can be considered that the impact of the SARS epidemic on the economy was concentrated in the second quarter and then quickly repaired. This was only in response to the 2003 year GDP growth rate still reaching a record high in 8 years.

  From the SARS perspective: the impact of the impact may be deepened, and the risk of assets at risk will have an impact on the economy and the asset market.

  The short-term impact of new pneumonia, the growth has stabilized after the epidemic.

First of all, from the SARS experience, the epidemic event is a short-term shock and will not interrupt the medium-to-long-term trend of economic growth. The gradual economic growth trend in 2003 coincided with the trend of the quarter before the outbreak of the epidemic.
From this point of view, after the end of the new pneumonia epidemic, the medium-to-long-term economic growth characteristics will be similar to the fourth quarter of 2019 before the epidemic, while the economic growth rate of the fourth quarter of 2019 is stable at 6%, and the industrial growth rate has rebounded.The growth rate at the bottom of the recovery has been shown. Therefore, after the epidemic shock, the central and long-term economic growth center will advance to maintain stability.

  In addition, from the experience of the SARS period, the impact of the epidemic shock on prices is relatively limited and does not constitute a basis for high inflation. However, the increase in pork prices caused by the decrease in supply has pushed it to a higher level, overlapping the Spring Festival holiday.The concentration of goods brought about by the prevention and control of the new pneumonia epidemic may continue to remain high in the short term, leading to risks that still need to be vigilant.

  The impact of the epidemic has subsided and there will not be a strong lag effect.

How long will the outbreak last?

According to the experience during the SARS epidemic, the impact on the economy began before and after the policy overweight, and the impact on the economy ended with the epidemic basically showing that the number of confirmed cases has hardly increased, and of course, the number of suspected cases has been significantly reduced, andWill have a strong lag effect.

At present, it is difficult to accurately estimate when the new pneumonia epidemic has completely ended. According to our calculations, the epidemic is expected to reach its peak in early February. In this case, it should not develop into the second quarter of 2020.

If localities resume work smoothly after the holiday, the impact of the new pneumonia epidemic on the economy will be concentrated in the first quarter of 2020, especially in January and February.

  The short-term impact of the epidemic is likely to exceed SARS. The cycle and structure are different.

In the case of SARS, the impact of the new pneumonia epidemic on the economy may deepen.

By the time of the SARS epidemic in 2003, it was in the rising cycle of the economy, and the current transformation of the conditions of the factors, the economy is changing from high-speed growth to high-speed growth interval; instead, more importantly, the experience of the SARS period showsThe impact of the epidemic on the tertiary industry and consumption is relatively significant, and the current internal economic structure has been significantly different from that in 2003. The tertiary industry accounted for nearly 54% in 2019, compared with only 42% in 2003.Investment is the main driving force, and the contribution rate of consumption to economic growth in 2019 is almost double that of investment. Therefore, the short-term impact of the epidemic on the economy may be large.

  The rise of online consumer platforms has partially hedged the 武汉夜网论坛 epidemic.

Since the impact of the epidemic on the economy is mainly reflected in consumption, we must also note that the current consumption pattern is also very different from 2003.

Internet platforms represented by Taobao,, and Hungry? Are replacing the traditional offline sales channels. Online retail sales of physical goods have accounted for nearly one-fifth of the scale of retail sales of consumer goods. The 2003 SARS incident was virtually invisible.The development of these e-commerce platforms has been promoted. If these platforms can maintain non-snoring operations, and even maintain the level of 70% to 80% before the impact of the epidemic, then it can partially hedge the drag of the epidemic on consumption and even the economy.

  Express delivery supports online consumption and can maintain vibration or 杭州桑拿 shock absorption.

However, the role of the online retail platform depends on convenient logistics. Therefore, the performance of the transportation industry, especially the logistics industry, in the epidemic situation is particularly important.

Due to the isolation and control needed to prevent and control the new pneumonia epidemic, various levels of traffic control measures have also been introduced, and the current internal traffic conditions have been developed much earlier than the SARS period in 2003. The impact of the epidemic on the civil aviation and railway passenger transport industriesGreater impact possible.

If the express delivery business can keep running under the circumstances that the epidemic prevention and control allows, we can weave out some consumer networks and slow down the impact of the economy.  Monetary policy is moderately flexible and fiscal plays a role.

Since the benchmark is based on the SARS period, the impact of the epidemic on the economy may deepen, so how to choose the correct policy orientation?

  Basically, it is quite similar to that during the SARS epidemic. Although there are no signs of overlap in the current economy, the gradual level is affected by pork prices, and there is also upward pressure. Therefore, monetary policy should not be relaxed.The tools are quite abundant, and the policy means can also be more flexible, such as a small interest rate reduction in stages, and the reduction of LPR interest rates to reduce social financing costs.

  At the same time, we believe that fiscal policy can play a role. The 2003 budget actually adopted the method of “reducing income and reducing expenditures” and reduced the tax burden of certain industries. This is in line with our continuous active fiscal policy of reducing taxes and feesThe main idea is the same.

Under the impact of the new pneumonia epidemic, we can take advantage of the budget financing of government bonds to raise funds to further increase tax and fee reduction efforts.

  Short-term safety assets benefit, and risk assets are at risk.

Affected by the impact of the epidemic, in the short term, safe assets will benefit the most. For example, gold has increased by nearly 4% this year, and national debt has also increased significantly in the near future.

However, if we look back at the asset performance during the SARS period in 2003, it shows the characteristics of overlapping periods that are consistent with the economic cycle at that time, not caused by epidemic factors.

Then, after the end of the new pneumonia epidemic, the recovery of transfer demand will drive economic growth to stabilize and improve. Asset performance will show the characteristics of a recovery period. Equity assets are expected to recover lost ground. This also means that the current adjustment of risk assets is at risk.

Huadian International (600027): double supply and demand, power prices are strong enough, expect coal prices to fall

Huadian International (600027): double supply and demand, power prices are strong enough, expect coal prices to fall

The company released the third quarter report of 2019, and achieved operating income of 674 in the first three quarters.

5.7 billion, an annual increase of 3.

68%; net profit attributable to mother is 25.

13 ppm, an increase of 59 in ten years.

97%, in line with Shen Wanwanyuan’s expectations.

  Key points for investment: Power generation in the third quarter has dropped, and the price of electricity has been strong due to multiple negative conditions.

The company’s power generation in the first half of the year increased by 5.

54%, mainly due to the company’s installed capacity increased every year in the first half of the year.


In the third quarter, the overall overall electricity consumption growth rate was rapidly replaced. Among them, Shandong ‘s largest installed electricity accounted for 2% in July and September.

37%, -5.

88% and 0.

1%, to suppress the company’s unit power generation efficiency.

In the meantime, since the beginning of the year, the Ximeng-Shandong UHV AC supporting power supply units have been put into production one by one. In the first three quarters, the increase in input power in Shandong Province has increased by more than 30%, which has also caused disturbance to the utilization hours of local units.

The company’s power generation in the first three quarters increased by 1 each year.

96%, a controversial drop from the first half of the year.

The company’s trading power ratio in the first three quarters reached 51.

70%, an increase of 12 over the same period last year.

In the 31 units, the company’s average on-grid electricity price in the first three quarters reached 413 under the background of double supply and demand.

59 yuan / MWh, an increase of about 1 in ten years.

99%, compared with 1 in the first half.

The 56% increase was further expanded, and multiple negative bearish electricity prices were expected to exceed expectations.

Participants in market-oriented transactions show stable rationality, helping the company’s operating income to achieve positive growth, which is commendable under the current background.

The decline in coal prices has improved gross margins and reduced financial costs have helped release performance.

The company achieved net profit attributable to its mother in the third quarter.

500 million US dollars, an annual increase of 47.

59%, showing a high performance elasticity. In addition to electricity prices exceeding the rebound and adjustments, mainly benefit from the decline in coal prices and lower financial costs.

In the third quarter, the Shandong coal price index was stable at 550-560 yuan / ton, which was basically flat compared with the second quarter, and was about 30 yuan / ton lower than the same period in 2018.

The company ‘s gross profit margin increased by 0 in the third quarter.

73 units, the overall increase. For the decline in coal prices, we judge possible reasons including the increase in gas turbine fuel costs, operation and maintenance, and labor costs.

In addition, the company started to issue perpetual bonds (included in other equity instruments) last year. Termination of other equity instruments at the end of the third quarter has reached US $ 14 billion. The company’s asset-liability ratio has shown a seasonal downward trend. At the end of September, the asset-liability ratio decreased to 67.

61%, a decrease of 3 per year.

6 units.

The company’s single quarter financial expense ratio interest rate was converted to zero.

For 48 shares per share, financial expenses have been reduced by at least about 80 million yuan, helping to release performance.

It is expected that the growth rate of power generation in the fourth quarter will be suppressed by the high base in the same period last year, and the improvement in profits will mainly come from the decline in coal prices.

In the fourth quarter of 2018, Shandong Province, the company with the highest installed capacity, had a single-quarter power consumption growth rate of more than 15%, second only to Inner Mongolia and ranked second in the country. The current downward pressure on the economy exceeded last year’s high base.Under pressure.

However, in general, the thermal power sector is at a relatively low profit point. The elasticity of coal price performance is far greater than the elasticity of hours of use. In the third quarter of this year, under the background of the National Day security inspections becoming more severe, coal prices still show the characteristics of “not busy in peak seasons.The high-quality coal production capacity was initially released, and coal prices entered the downward channel again in the fourth quarter.In the fourth quarter of last year, the coal price index in Shandong Province rebounded significantly, which is beneficial to the improvement of the fourth quarter performance of this year from a base point of view.

In addition, Hubei, the second largest province in terms of installed capacity of the company, must benefit from the commissioning of the Haoji Railway, and lower freight rates will help the company’s Hubei region improve its power generation performance.

Earnings forecast and estimation: We maintain the company’s net profit forecast for the mother company for 2019-2021 is 32.

87, 46.

52, 55.

390,000 yuan, the corresponding EPS is 0.

33, 0.

47 and 0.

56 yuan / share.

Corresponding PE is 11, 8, 7 times.

As a national thermal power leader, the company is expected to continue to benefit from the decline in national coal prices and maintain the “overweight” rating.

Donggang Co. (002117) 2018 Annual Report Review: Product Adjustment Expands High-priced Paper Inventory Q4 Under Pressure 19Q1 Performance Enhancement Angle of Attack

Donggang Co. (002117) 2018 Annual Report Review: Product Adjustment Expands High-priced Paper Inventory Q4 Under Pressure 19Q1 Performance Enhancement Angle of Attack

Investment Highlights: The company announced its 2018 annual report, and net profit attributable to mothers increased by 10 per year.

6%, high dividends.

The company achieved revenue of 15 in 2018.

4.6 billion, an annual increase of 8.

1%; net profit attributable to mother 2.

5.7 billion, an increase of 10 in ten years.

6%, in line with our expectations; Q4 achieved revenue of 3 in a single quarter.

80 ppm, 10-year average1.

4%, Q4 returns to mother’s net profit 0.

61 ppm, a ten-year average of 7.


The profit distribution plan for 2018 is: a cash dividend of 7 yuan (including tax) will be distributed for every 10 shares, and 5 bonus shares will be distributed.

Low gross profit margin business divestitures and orders not yet delivered, revenue growth in 18Q4 declined; high-priced paper inventory, pressure on profitability.

1) Starting from Q3 2018, the low gross profit margin business will be gradually discontinued.

As the paper price rises, the low-margin office paper business and the entrusted printing paper business are below the break-even line. We estimate that the two businesses contributed about 35 million revenue in the fourth quarter of 2017 (2017 revenue of about 90 million yuan).

The company shut down two businesses from Q3 2018, which initially caused a certain drag on revenue formation.

2) Insufficient production capacity and some orders have not been delivered.

Due to the rapid increase in orders received in December 2018, the company’s related production capacity is limited, and some orders have not been delivered before the end of the year, and no revenue has been formed for the time being.

3) The impact of high-priced raw material inventories put pressure on gross profit margins.

Because the company has a certain stock of raw paper, although the price of Q4 paper has fallen, the company is still digesting high-priced inventory, and the gross profit margin of Q4 has fallen by 6 from the previous month.

13pct, down 2 a year.

42 points.

New business continued to grow at a high rate, contributing new profit drivers.

1) Mass production of bank cards drives the volume of overlay products: In 2017, the company won the bid for bank card orders from major banks such as Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, etc. The product test period of the order office in 2017, and new orders received at the end of 2017 for mass production.In 2018, the company’s overlay product business increased.

We achieve revenue from overlay businesses2.

4.2 billion, an annual increase of 62.


2) Archive storage drives 夜来香体验网 high technical service revenue growth: In 2018, the company’s archive storage business and lottery business continued to grow at a high rate, and the main growth driver of technical services was built.

The archive business achieved revenue of more than 90 million yuan, an annual increase of 67%, and a net profit of 9-10 million yuan; the lottery realized revenue of 29-30 million yuan, an increase of 107% in revenue, and a net profit of more than 4 million yuan; electronic ticketing revenue of 40 million yuan, annuallyAn increase of 40% can approach 8 million.

The development of file storage for small, medium and micro customers will double the revenue growth in 2019; the electronic ticketing industry will continue to innovate during the year, and the profit model will be profitable by switching.

Revenue has resumed 武汉夜网论坛 growth, costs have improved significantly, and new businesses have continued to grow. We expect Q1 2019 to meet the results.

Orders for the main printing industry in December 2018 were delivered in 2019, and the concentration of beneficiary industries increased, and orders achieved high growth.

We expect the company’s high-priced inventory of finished paper has been digested in January 2019, and a drop in paper prices will bring significant improvements in the company’s costs.

New businesses such as the archival storage business continued to increase volume, contributing new growth momentum.

The product structure of traditional businesses has been adjusted to improve profitability, the volume of new businesses has accelerated, and the drop in paper prices will gradually be realized on the cost side. Performance is expected to meet the inflection point and maintain the increase in holdings!

The company’s continuous layout in the fields of smart cards, file storage, electronic ticketing, and three-dimensional sales of lottery tickets has transformed the Internet information comprehensive service provider and continues to advance.

The company’s employee shareholding plan was launched in February 2017 (volume 2.

5.4 billion, with an average price of 25.72 yuan / share).

Affected by the adjustment of the traditional business structure, we maintain the net profit attributable to mother to 3 in 2019-2020.

3.7 billion and 4.

40,000 yuan, an increase of 4 in 2021.

8.7 billion profit forecast, corresponding EPS is 0.

93 yuan, 1.

11 yuan and 1.

34 yuan, currently expected (19.

(11 yuan) Corresponding to 2019-2021 PE is 21 times, 17 times and 14 times, respectively, to maintain overweight!

Zhibang Household (603801): Interim report performance is better than expected, single quarter QoQ improved significantly

Zhibang Household (603801): Interim report performance is better than expected, single quarter QoQ improved significantly

The net profit after deducting non-return to motherhood grew faster, and the improvement in the second quarter alone was obvious.

49 ppm, an increase of 10 in ten years.

24%, achieving net profit attributable to mother 1.

10,000 yuan, an increase of 16 in ten years.

13%, net of non-attributed net profit 0.

99 ppm, an increase of 18 years.


In terms of quarters, the revenue and profitability of the second quarter alone were improved compared with the first quarter, of which the second quarter alone achieved operating income.

35 ppm, an increase of 13 in ten years.

3%, realizing net profit attributable to mother 7.

85 ppm, an increase of 21 in ten years.

4%, net profit attributable to non-returning mothers was 78.54 million, a long-term growth of 29.


The growth rate of the closet business is bright. For the bulk, the overseas business performance can be expected to be divided into businesses. In the first half of the year, the closet business was affected by the intensified competition in the industry and realized revenue8.

600 million, slightly tier 1 a year.

2%, the wardrobe (full house) business realized income 2.

6 billion, a previous real growth of 74%.

The performance of overseas business is dazzling, and bulk business will gradually enter the carry-over period.

Revenue from bulk business 2.

110,000 yuan, an increase of 24 in ten years.

41%, accounts receivable increased by 55% to 2 in ten years.

1.5 billion, outstanding performance of export business, realized revenue1.

14 ppm, an increase of 87 in ten years.

3%, mainly benefited from the rapid development of Australian business and the continued advancement of the American market.

Investment advice and profit forecast are optimistic about the company’s future: 1) The integration of large homes will be promoted, dealer empowerment will be expanded, and new spokespersons will increase brand influence; 2)南宁桑拿 Overseas channels maintain high growth, and major businesses have gradually entered the income carry-over period, helping to accelerate the growth of income.

3) Profitability has remained stable with the adjustment of the structure of major customers, optimization of factory costs, and production of wooden doors.

It is estimated that the company’s net profit for 2019-2021 will be 3 respectively.

2, 3.

8, 4.

400 million (+18.

8%, 17.

4%, 14.

3%), currently expected to correspond to 14xPE in 2019, considering that comparable companies currently have an average PE of 19 times in 2019, but the company’s revenue growth rate is slightly weaker than comparable companies, giving the company a reasonable estimate of 17xPE in 2019, corresponding to a reasonable value of 24.

65 yuan / share, maintain BUY rating.

Risks indicate that the land planning policy is higher than expected, the growth rate of the engineering end is not as expected, the development of overseas business is blocked, the fluctuation of the US dollar exchange rate, and the increase in the price of raw materials are higher than expected.

Xiamen Tungsten (600549): Battery material business achieved profit in Q3 and Q4 profit improved significantly month-on-month

Xiamen Tungsten (600549): Battery material business achieved profit in Q3 and Q4 profit improved significantly month-on-month

The event company issued a performance forecast and realized revenue in 2019. Net profit attributable to mothers and net profit attributable to non-mothers were 174 and 2, respectively.

66 and 1.

US $ 2 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 11%, 47%, and 67% respectively. This comment is as follows: A brief review of the company’s net profit attributable to its mother is mainly due to the tungsten and molybdenum sector dragging the company’s total profit for 2019 to 5.

US $ 6.4 billion, an average of 43% over a ten-year period, mainly due to the significant increase in profits of the tungsten and molybdenum sector.

Of the company’s four segments, only the tungsten and molybdenum business increased margins, and the remaining three segments brought improvements.

The tungsten and molybdenum business is expected to maximize profits in 20192.

37 trillion, down 77 a year.

44%; Although the battery business is affected by the price of raw materials, the overall profit growth, but benefit from the expansion of the scale, government subsidies and research and development costs plus substitution and other policies, the profit is expected to reduce.

28 ppm, an increase of 38 per year.

37%; the rare earth business benefits from rising prices and is expected to maximize profits1.

1.8 billion US dollars, previously turned losses into profits; real estate business realized a cumulative profit growth of 0.

800 million, turned losses before.

Lithium-ion materials business: Turning losses in the third quarter, and the fourth-quarter earnings improved significantly. The company’s battery materials include lithium-ion materials and hydrogen storage alloys, of which lithium-ion material production capacity.

6 trace amounts (including ternary, lithium cobaltate, lithium manganate and lithium iron phosphate, etc.).

18 and 19 Q1 lithium ion materials sales were 2 respectively.

5 and 0.

The average value is 7 and the average quality is 32.

5 and 230,000 yuan / ton, 19 years of H1 battery materials realized revenue and gross profit of 3.4 billion and 2 respectively.

63 trillion, of which Xiamen Tungsten New Energy realized revenue and net profit of 33 trillion and -0, respectively.

The company’s downstream customers are large domestic companies with long-term cooperation and have high customer stickiness. The company’s H1 sales volume in 19 years has continued to grow, replacing direct decline in the price of cobalt, the company’s main raw material for lithium ion materials, which has driven product prices down. Since Q3Cobalt prices rebounded, and the battery materials business has achieved profit. The company’s Q1-Q4 battery material profit margins in 2019 were -0.

42 trillion, -0.

10,000 yuan, 0.

2.6 billion and 1.

4.5 billion (maximize profits in 20191.

USD 2.8 billion, an annual growth rate of 38%). In the future, the supply of cobalt industry will improve and demand will increase. The price of cobalt is expected to continue to rebound.

In 2019, the tungsten price experienced a V-shaped market, which caused the company’s tungsten and molybdenum plate profit to drop sharply. The company’s tungsten and molybdenum plate business profit growth fell by 77%, 杭州夜生活网 mainly due to the decline in tungsten price and the consolidation of the company’s beginning high price inventory.

The company’s APT inventory at the beginning of 2019 was 1,519 tons, which was a crack increase compared with the beginning of 2018.

In 2019, the tungsten industry as a whole showed a V-shaped trend, and the early tungsten concentrate price was 9.

550,000 / ton, close to a high point, the company’s initial inventory price is at a higher position.

In the first half of the year, affected by two factors, including weak downstream demand and pan-Asian inventory auctions, the price of tungsten concentrates fell sharply in June, falling to a minimum of 7.

10,000 / ton, fell below the mainstream mine cost line.

Later, after the Pan-Asian inventory was auctioned, the market rebounded short-term and the tungsten concentrate price rose to 9.

20,000 / ton, slightly down at the end of the year to stabilize at 8.

70,000 / ton.

The average ten-year price of tungsten concentrate in 2019 is 8.

750,000 / ton, which is 17% higher than the average price in 2018.


The company’s annual output of tungsten concentrates in three mines in 2018 was 1.2 Nominal (Luoyang Yulu shares account for 60%), second only to Minmetals.

Affected by the decline in tungsten prices, the company’s tungsten molybdenum sector’s earnings were severely damaged.

At present, after the Pan-Asian inventory is auctioned, the suppressive effect of inventory factors on tungsten prices has basically been eliminated.

The downstream demand level is mainly due to the decrease in demand for cemented carbide rods, while the main application areas of cemented carbide rods are in automobiles and 3C consumer electronics.

At present, there is a trend in automobiles; benefiting from the emergence of 5G, the margin of 3C consumer electronics demand has improved, and tungsten prices are expected to pick up in 2020.

The downstream demand for tungsten products has been boosted. As the domestic industry leader, the tungsten and molybdenum segment business is expected to improve significantly.

The investment proposal estimates that the company’s EPS in 19-21 will be 0.

19 yuan, 0.

26 yuan and 0.

46 yuan, corresponding to the current sustainable PE is 69.

2 times, 51.

0 times and 28.

Three times, considering the company’s industry level, the company is given a “Buy” rating with a six-month target price of 16.

97 yuan.

WuXi PharmaTech (603259): Strong growth highlights leading temperament

WuXi PharmaTech (603259): Strong growth highlights leading temperament
Investment Highlights Event: WuXi AppTec released its 2018 annual report. The company’s performance in 2018 maintained strong growth and achieved operating income of 96.14 ppm, an increase of 23 in ten years.8%; net profit attributable to mother 22.61 ppm, an 84-year increase.2%.Increase income 2.21 yuan, an annual increase of 70.0%. Opinion: Strong revenue growth and rapid profit growth.The company’s operating income increased by 23 in 2018.8%, calculated at the average exchange rate of the same period last year, with a growth rate of 25.4%.In terms of business segments, China’s laboratory services realized revenue51.13 ppm, an increase of 24 in ten years.09%; CDMO / CMO services realized revenue 26.99 ppm, an increase of 28 in ten years.00%; U.S. laboratory services achieved revenue of 12.40,000 yuan, an increase of 6 in ten years.10%; revenue from clinical research and other CRO services5.85 ppm, a 64-year increase of 64.17%.The company’s net profit attributable to mothers increased by 84 in 2018.2% to 22.6.1 billion.Changes in the fair value of the company’s venture capital bids generate revenue.1.6 billion.Deduct non-net profit 15.59 ppm, an increase of 59 in ten years.18%.The non-IFRS attributable to parent net profit increased by 75 in 2018.5% to 24.6.4 billion.Adjusted non-IFRS net profit attributable to mothers increased by 23.3% to 17.4.2 billion. Laboratory services in China, CDMO’s two leading segments drive rapid growth, cell and gene therapy CDMO, and clinical CRO two potential markets have expanded smoothly.China’s laboratory services in the “integrated, end-to-end” R & D service platform have outstanding advantages, the penetration rate of old customers has increased, and new customers have continued to develop.The CDMO service focuses on improving customer stickiness. Through the clinical phase of the customer, the value of the project continues to expand, helping to continue the rapid and rapid growth of revenue.The company’s forward-looking layout of cell and gene therapy CDMO is expected to improve the success of Duanquan Pharmaceutical and WuXiBiology in the fields of small-molecule drugs and large-molecule biomedicines respectively; the growth rate in the second half of 2018 will be from the first half.46% increased to 28.41%.Clinical research and other CRO services have achieved rapid growth; mainly due to the rapid development of the domestic new drug clinical trial market, as well as the company’s clinical trial CRO and SMO service quality, scale and capabilities have increased significantly, and the number of customers and orders has grown rapidly. The company’s overall gross profit margin was 39 in 2018.45%, down 2 every year.38 points.Mainly due to the appreciation of RMB against USD and USD in the first half of 2018 compared with the same period of the previous year; meanwhile, the expansion of new capacity and the rapid deployment of potential businesses; and the gradual decline in the gross profit margin of laboratory services in the United States.87 points.We expect that after gradually absorbing capacity through the expansion of new customers, the gross profit margin is expected to rebound.Management and R & D expense ratio, sales expense ratio remained basically stable compared with the same period, of which sales expense ratio in 2018 was 3.51%, a decrease of 0 every year.24pc; management and R & D expense ratio 16.30%, a decline of 0 every year.05pct.The financial expense ratio has decreased significantly due to new stock financing from February 2017.38% acknowledged zero in 2018.58%.The company’s customers continue to increase, with more than 1,400 new customers and more than 3,500 active customers in 2018. In terms of quarters, the company’s operating income growth rate and the non-net profit growth rate have been increasing quarter by quarter since the second quarter of 2018. We expect to continue to maintain high income growth through new capacity expansion in 2019.Gross profit margin decreased in the fourth quarter of 2018, which was a decrease from the previous quarter, mainly due to the expansion of new production capacity, new employee employment, and exchange rate changes. Unicorn of innovative pharmaceutical industry chain, with global competitiveness, strong internal growth momentum!The proportion of innovative drug research and development scale continues to increase, the expansion of pharmaceutical service to China, the breakthrough of domestic innovative drug services, and the industry is expected to maintain a continuous growth of about 20%.The company is one of the best companies in the global service outsourcing industry; the company stands out from the fully competitive market of global pre-clinical CROs, and has become one of the most comprehensive leaders in the global pharmaceutical outsourcing service industry.With strong competitiveness.The company covers the most long-tail customers, and the number of new customer developments continues to grow.At present, it has the world’s most pre-clinical CRO projects and is included in the clinical stage CRO. With the enhancement of CDMO capabilities, customer retention can bring rapid internal growth.Participate in innovative drug projects through venture capital and DDSU models, provide more professional analysis and forecasting, provide R & D services and diversify investment, reduce risks and increase endogenous returns. Earnings forecast and estimation: We forecast the operating income for 2019-2021 to be 1南京桑拿论坛22.06 billion, 152.9.8 billion and 191.45 ppm, an increase of 26 in ten years.96%, 25.33% and 25.15%, net profit attributable to mother is 22.4.7 billion yuan, 29.13 ppm and 37.51 ppm, a ten-year increase of -0.59%, 29.61% and 28.79%.The company’s revenue will maintain a rapid growth trend, but the net profit attributable to the mother as of 2018, the huge amount of changes in fair value, the increase in profit and loss, and the increase in incentive costs will apparently fail to grow at the same pace as revenue.Maintain high growth.The current corresponding PE in 2019 is 50 times, and the company is considered to be an innovative drug industry chain enterprise with the strongest innovation ability; the industry is in a high prosperity, and the company’s industry leader is stable. Related domestic comparable companies can give estimated premiums.Maintain “Buy” rating. Risk reminder: the risk of intensified market competition in the pharmaceutical R & D service industry; safety and environmental protection risks in the drug production process; technical risks in the contract execution process; exchange rate fluctuation risks

Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493) Interim Review: Loss of inventory dragged down Sinopec’s H1 results in line with expectations

Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493) Interim Review: Loss of inventory dragged down Sinopec’s H1 results in line with expectations
Event: The company released its semi-annual report for 2019, and achieved total operating income of 394 in 19H1.920,000 yuan (+5 compared with the same period last year).28%), realizing net profit attributable to mother 10.460,000 yuan (Year-on-year.66%) and realized deduction of non-net profit9.710,000 yuan (-16% year-on-year.34%), the overall basically in line with market expectations. The loss of inventory caused by the decline in crude oil prices replaced the performance of Sinopec.The semi-annual fluctuation of the company’s performance was mainly due to the performance of Sinopec: 19H1 Sinopec’s performance was 3.16 trillion, ranked 7 in the same period last year.00 percent is over 50%.We analyze that the core reasons for the decline in the performance of Sinopec are: 1) the inventory loss caused by the decline in crude oil prices in May, from the perspective of 北京夜生活网 gross profit, rather than the reality of PX gross profit (PX-naphtha-processing expenses) significantly narrowing(This is related to the simultaneous decline in prices of crude oil and naphtha). We oppose the claim that the decline in the performance of Sinopec is due to the narrowing of the PX price difference; 2) The fuel oil price driven by IMO 2020 will increase.The cost advantage has declined.Since 2019, we can see that the price of fuel oil is very strong compared to crude oil. The cost advantage brought by Sinopec’s “use of fuel oil to produce PX” has been reduced-the average price of Singapore fuel oil 180/380 in 19H1 was 409.95/402.31 US dollars / ton, it is estimated that the same period last year increased by 1.88/2.88%, while Singapore naphtha price 19H1 average price is 57.06 US dollars / barrel, it is estimated that the 杭州夜网论坛 same period last year fell by 15.01%, so as a raw material for PX production, the advantages of fuel oil over naphtha are significantly narrowed. PTA replaced the aromatics business as a major contributor to performance.The PTA production enterprises controlled by Rongsheng Sen are Ningbo Yisheng, Dalian Yisheng and Hainan Yisheng.Since 2019, the PTA has been relatively high in scale. Ningbo Yisheng, Dalian Yisheng and Hainan Yisheng have achieved 7 in 19H1.25/4.89/3.77 trillion, ranking 3 in the same period last year.90/2.20/2.1.5 billion increased by 85.90/122.27/75.35%.On the whole, PTA production enterprises must have expanded to the breakthrough realm of Sinopec’s outstanding achievements. Profit forecast: According to the company’s H1 operation, we adjust the net profit attributable to mothers to 21 in 2019-2021.97/57.10/63.69 ppm, corresponding to PE of 33/13/11 times, maintaining the “overweight” level. Risk Warning: Crude oil prices fall, refinery and chemical project construction is less than expected, exchange rate fluctuation risks

Yuntianhua (600096): Volume and price of phosphate fertilizer business, gross profit margin rose, asset-liability ratio decreased slightly

Yuntianhua (600096): Volume and price of phosphate fertilizer business, gross profit margin rose, asset-liability ratio decreased slightly

Investment Highlights: The company released its 2018 annual report, and its performance was in line with expectations.

Realized operating income of 529 in 2018.

79 ppm, a five-year average of 5.

35%, net profit attributable to mother is 1.

23 ‰, 39 from the previous decade.

18%, in line with expectations.

It is worth noting that the company’s net profit after returning to the mother increases by 7.

54 ppm to -1.

5 billion US dollars, a substantial reduction in losses, mainly due to the improvement of the phosphorus chemical boom, phosphate fertilizer volume and price rose, nitrogen fertilizer and polyoxymethylene prices gradually increased, sales gross profit increased, the revenue growth was mainly due to the company’s alternative tradeBusiness scale.

Of which 18Q4 single quarter realized operating income of 162.

5.9 billion (+62 y / y).

56%, QoQ + 19.

97%), net profit attributable to mother is 0.

4 billion (yoy-77.

90%, QoQ + 135.

29%), 18Q4 company accrued asset impairment3.

5.9 billion, mainly due to the joint business of the subsidiary withdrawing bad debt provisions and individual single inventory impairment provisions for individual accounts receivable and the subsidiary Tianan Chemical withdrawing impairment provisions for the yellow phosphorus plant.

In 2018, the company’s selling expenses and financial expenses increased by 5 per year.

2% (mainly affected by upward interest rates), 11.

5% to 25.

28, 25.

3.6 billion, each time management costs fall by 5.

89% to 16.

1.4 billion US dollars, mainly for the sale of Qinghai Yuntianhua, Numi Technology, Hanen New Materials and other companies to strengthen the equipment’s long-term operation management and control, reducing the equipment parking loss.

The company has obvious advantages in integration, benefiting from the improvement of the phosphorus chemical industry chain, the volume and price of phosphate fertilizer business, and the gross profit margin.

The company currently has 1,450 tons of phosphate rock raw ore production capacity. In 2018, the production and sales of phosphate rock increased by 5% and 28% to 1049, respectively.


6 Preliminary, sales price (excluding tax, the same below) increased in advance 6.

0% to 194 yuan / ton.

The prices of the company’s diammonium phosphate and monoammonium phosphate increased by 14% year-on-year and 20% respectively to 2499 and 2310 yuan / ton, and their gross profit margins increased by 1.


One is up to 28% and 30%, which far exceeds other companies in the same industry.

At present, the Ministry of Ecology and Environmental Protection stated that it will continue to modify and improve the work plan for the special investigation and rectification of the “Three Phosphorus” of the Yangtze River and issue and implement it as soon as possible.Judging from 19-20 years, the increase in production capacity of phosphate fertilizer is less than the growth rate of demand. Therefore, we judge that the prosperity of the phosphate industry will continue.

The company pays close attention to the “long cycle” operation of production facilities, optimizes the centralized procurement of bulk raw materials, controls costs, and increases the prices of urea, engineering materials, polyacetal and gross profit margin.

In 2018, major production units such as ammonia, urea, sulfuric acid, and polyformaldehyde achieved 35 long-term stable operations. The sales price of the company’s urea continued to rise by 24% to 1,892 yuan / ton due to the increase in raw materials and industry transformation.

1 up to 39.

In 2018, the market for polyoxymethylene recovered, and the reform of the departmental mechanism was obvious. The sales of 无锡夜网 polyoxymethylene and prices rose twice.
6%, 15.

3% to 9.

58 initial, 12663 yuan / ton, gross profit margin increased by 7.

8 up to 36.


The decline in the asset interest rate and the improvement in the balance sheet end will bring the performance elasticity of the income statement.

The asset-liability ratio has fallen by 1 every year in 2018.

3 up to 90.


However, due to the significant reduction in the interest rate uplink, a thorough analysis revealed that the peak period of capital expenditure has passed, and the construction in progress has basically been solidified. There are only 6.

8.7 billion, the business layout is getting better, and operating cash flow and monetary cash increase by 4 each time.

5, 35.

700 million to 31.

9, 126.

400 million, very abundant.

The company is actively optimizing its asset structure, reducing leverage, and improving overall profitability.

Profit forecast and investment rating.

Maintain the profit forecast for 19-20, supplement the profit forecast for 2021, and predict that the company’s net profit forecast for the mother company in 2019-2021 will be 5.

12, 6.

40, 7.

800,000 yuan, EPS is 0.

36, 0.

45, 0.

55 yuan, corresponding PE is 19X, 15X, 13X.

Selected as a “Double Hundred Enterprises” to welcome the historical opportunities of state-owned enterprise reform, fair incentives to demonstrate the reform decision and confidence in the future operation, mineral integration will enable it to fully benefit from the continued prosperity of the phosphorous chemical industry, and through the progressive development of the company’s asset-liability structureImprove, performance is expected to usher in an inflection point, and maintain overweight rating.

Depth-Company-China Everbright Bank (601818): Outstanding fee income performance, operating income maintained rapid growth

Depth * Company * Everbright Bank (601818): Outstanding performance in fee income, operating income maintained rapid growth

Everbright Bank’s profit growth in the first half of the year was in line with expectations, fee income still maintained rapid growth ahead of its peers, stable interest margin performance, and stable and good asset quality.

Considering that the company’s fundamentals have improved significantly, the expansion of program fee income has expanded its competitive strength, and is lower than the industry average estimate, we maintain China Everbright Bank’s Buy rating.

Key points of the support level The rapid increase in revenue was in line with expectations, the performance of program fee income was bright, and the overall profit of the bank maintained a rapid increase. The net profit before provisioning in the first half of the year increased by 32.

0%, the growth rate fell 4 compared with the first quarter.

7 single, but the company’s credit cost in the second quarter fell 0 chain.

46 up to 1.

63%, supporting Everbright Bank’s first half net profit increased by 13.

1% from the previous quarter (+7.

5%, year-on-year) increased by 5.

6 units.

The company’s operating income has maintained rapid growth, with an annual increase of 26.

6%, a slight increase of 6 from the previous quarter.

Nine are single, one is because investment income has decreased by 36.


Second, net interest income was 51 from the first quarter.

The growth rate of 2% has improved, but in absolute terms, it still maintains a rapid growth, which is due to the reclassification of credit card installment income by China Everbright Bank, which has caused some disturbance.

In terms of fee income, after excluding credit card installments, it still achieved 21 in the first half of the year.

The annual increase of 7% is mainly due to the annual increase in bank card income28.

The 3% boost shows that China Everbright Bank leads the industry in competition in non-interest income growth.

At the end of the quarter, the scale of Everbright 厦门夜网 Bank’s assets increased by 2 compared with the previous quarter.

80%, of which loans increased by 3.

38%, credit was slightly replenished earlier in the first quarter, and loan extensions increased by 16.

4% (vs1 quarter, +18.

(9%, year-on-year), and its proportion in total assets stabilized at 54.


On the debt side, deposits maintained rapid growth, an increase of 4 from the previous quarter.

11%, an increase of 21 a year.

5%, the previous growth rate was unchanged from the first quarter.

The growth of structural deposits is mainly driven by regular periods, which has increased the proportion of deposits since the beginning of the year.


In terms of net interest margin, China Everbright Bank’s net interest margin was 2 in the first half of the year.

28%, a significant 48BP increase in advance, we must 北京桑拿洗浴保健 increase the disturbance of credit card installment reclassification.

We estimate that China Everbright Bank’s single quarter net interest margin in the second quarter was two.

27%, unchanged from the previous month. Although the return on the asset side decreased slightly by 3bp, the cost on the liability side also declined due to the slow explanation of the cost pressure from the industry. The net interest margin remained stable under the combined effect of the two negative segments.

Asset quality remained stable, and the provisioning base needed to be further reduced. Everbright Bank’s bad replacement in the second quarter1.

57%, a decrease of 2bp from the first quarter in the first quarter, and the proportion of attention-oriented loans in the second quarter decreased by 11BP to 2 in the initial period.

30%, the company’s asset quality remains stable.

We estimate the company’s annualized non-performing loan generation rate in the second quarter of the year1.60%, a decrease of 12bp from the previous quarter.

As of the end of the second quarter, China Everbright Bank had a loan / non-performing loan ratio overdue for more than 90 days at 88.

7%, serious adverse consequences, but an increase of 4.

6 units.

As of the end of the second quarter, the company’s provision coverage ratio and loan provision decreased by 66BP / 4BP to 178% / 2 from the previous quarter.

80%, the provision coverage ratio should be further improved to further enhance risk prevention capabilities.

It is estimated that we slightly raised China Everbright’s net profit growth rate to 11 in 19/20.

4% / 10.

1% (previous forecast was 8.

23% / 9.

27%), currently the PE corresponding to 2019/20 is 5.

23x / 4.

75x, PB is 0.


57 times.

The main risks to the rating are lower than expected.