Huadian International (600027): double supply and demand, power prices are strong enough, expect coal prices to fall
The company released the third quarter report of 2019, and achieved operating income of 674 in the first three quarters.
5.7 billion, an annual increase of 3.
68%; net profit attributable to mother is 25.
13 ppm, an increase of 59 in ten years.
97%, in line with Shen Wanwanyuan’s expectations.
Key points for investment: Power generation in the third quarter has dropped, and the price of electricity has been strong due to multiple negative conditions.
The company’s power generation in the first half of the year increased by 5.
54%, mainly due to the company’s installed capacity increased every year in the first half of the year.
In the third quarter, the overall overall electricity consumption growth rate was rapidly replaced. Among them, Shandong ‘s largest installed electricity accounted for 2% in July and September.
88% and 0.
1%, to suppress the company’s unit power generation efficiency.
In the meantime, since the beginning of the year, the Ximeng-Shandong UHV AC supporting power supply units have been put into production one by one. In the first three quarters, the increase in input power in Shandong Province has increased by more than 30%, which has also caused disturbance to the utilization hours of local units.
The company’s power generation in the first three quarters increased by 1 each year.
96%, a controversial drop from the first half of the year.
The company’s trading power ratio in the first three quarters reached 51.
70%, an increase of 12 over the same period last year.
In the 31 units, the company’s average on-grid electricity price in the first three quarters reached 413 under the background of double supply and demand.
59 yuan / MWh, an increase of about 1 in ten years.
99%, compared with 1 in the first half.
The 56% increase was further expanded, and multiple negative bearish electricity prices were expected to exceed expectations.
Participants in market-oriented transactions show stable rationality, helping the company’s operating income to achieve positive growth, which is commendable under the current background.
The decline in coal prices has improved gross margins and reduced financial costs have helped release performance.
The company achieved net profit attributable to its mother in the third quarter.
500 million US dollars, an annual increase of 47.
59%, showing a high performance elasticity. In addition to electricity prices exceeding the rebound and adjustments, mainly benefit from the decline in coal prices and lower financial costs.
In the third quarter, the Shandong coal price index was stable at 550-560 yuan / ton, which was basically flat compared with the second quarter, and was about 30 yuan / ton lower than the same period in 2018.
The company ‘s gross profit margin increased by 0 in the third quarter.
73 units, the overall increase. For the decline in coal prices, we judge possible reasons including the increase in gas turbine fuel costs, operation and maintenance, and labor costs.
In addition, the company started to issue perpetual bonds (included in other equity instruments) last year. Termination of other equity instruments at the end of the third quarter has reached US $ 14 billion. The company’s asset-liability ratio has shown a seasonal downward trend. At the end of September, the asset-liability ratio decreased to 67.
61%, a decrease of 3 per year.
The company’s single quarter financial expense ratio interest rate was converted to zero.
For 48 shares per share, financial expenses have been reduced by at least about 80 million yuan, helping to release performance.
It is expected that the growth rate of power generation in the fourth quarter will be suppressed by the high base in the same period last year, and the improvement in profits will mainly come from the decline in coal prices.
In the fourth quarter of 2018, Shandong Province, the company with the highest installed capacity, had a single-quarter power consumption growth rate of more than 15%, second only to Inner Mongolia and ranked second in the country. The current downward pressure on the economy exceeded last year’s high base.Under pressure.
However, in general, the thermal power sector is at a relatively low profit point. The elasticity of coal price performance is far greater than the elasticity of hours of use. In the third quarter of this year, under the background of the National Day security inspections becoming more severe, coal prices still show the characteristics of “not busy in peak seasons.The high-quality coal production capacity was initially released, and coal prices entered the downward channel again in the fourth quarter.In the fourth quarter of last year, the coal price index in Shandong Province rebounded significantly, which is beneficial to the improvement of the fourth quarter performance of this year from a base point of view.
In addition, Hubei, the second largest province in terms of installed capacity of the company, must benefit from the commissioning of the Haoji Railway, and lower freight rates will help the company’s Hubei region improve its power generation performance.
Earnings forecast and estimation: We maintain the company’s net profit forecast for the mother company for 2019-2021 is 32.
390,000 yuan, the corresponding EPS is 0.
47 and 0.
56 yuan / share.
Corresponding PE is 11, 8, 7 times.
As a national thermal power leader, the company is expected to continue to benefit from the decline in national coal prices and maintain the “overweight” rating.