A stock is expected to enter a period of rational consolidation after bottoming out_1

A stock is expected to enter the period of rational consolidation after bottoming out

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  After the original title bottomed out and rebounded, A-shares are expected to enter a period of rational consolidation. Wang Youruo ○ Editor Sun Fang Year of Trading, the A-share market has shown a strong possibility.

Eventually it closed on Friday, and the ChiNext index rose 4% throughout the week.

57%, both recovering lost ground and setting a new stage high; the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index only fell slightly.

66%; Shanghai Composite Index closed down 3 weeks.


  After experiencing the short-term impact of the epidemic, with the resumption of work starting this week, how will A shares behave?

  The institutional view is that the core variable that determines the short-term risk of the market is still the epidemic, 北京夜网 but investor sentiment tends to stabilize, and the “trading period” in which market style resets oversold rebounds enters into a gradually rational “allocation period”.

At the same time, as for the future leading line of A-shares, many securities research institutes agree that the technology sector is still a direction worthy of focus.

  The market enters a more rational consolidation period. For the future market trend, CITIC Securities is maximally optimistic and believes that the low point of the index last week has fixed the market bottom in 2020.

This is because: first, the epidemic has only a one-time pulse effect on the market and fundamentals, which has gradually become a consensus; second, short-term changes are behind the timely and comprehensive expected management of policies; and again, loose macro 北京夜网 liquidityOfficial estimates estimate that there will be no recurrence in the short term; in the end, the risks of “two financings” and equity pledge are manageable, and the risk of forced selling is low.

  CITIC Securities’ proposal, the core variable that determines the market’s short-term risk appetite, is still the epidemic, and the market focus resets the pulse of the epidemic to the evolution of the epidemic and resumes work after the holiday.

However, investor sentiment is expected to stabilize, and the market volatility will also become smaller. The “trading period” in which the market style resets oversold rebounds becomes a gradually “rational period”.

  China Merchants Securities Zhang Xia (Jin Qilin analyst) strategy team also said that starting on February 10, various industries across the country will resume work.

In the short term, the market will go from a huge shock to a narrow shock or a shock upward, and the conversion rate will obviously decline.

At the industry level, TMT will shift from one side to the next, and TMT will shift to a new pattern of differentiation.

  Haitong Securities’ Yu Yugen (Jin Qilin analyst) strategy team judged that the gradual market decline is sufficient from a spatial perspective, but it still needs time to fully adjust after the sharp decline.

The market needs to wait for the turning point of the epidemic to rise again and be supported by subsequent fundamental data.

  The current ammunition accumulation of A shares: Since February 3, public fund managers have issued announcements to subscribe / subscribe for related fund products with their own funds to supplement the liquidity of A shares with actual actions.

According to the statistics of China Securities Investment Fund Industry Association, as of February 8, the cumulative self-purchase scale of 31 public fundraising institutions in the industry has reached 23.

74.5 billion.

From the source of funds, the self-purchased funds include the personal funds of its executives, employees, etc., in addition to the public funds raised.

In addition to the public offering entities, some brokerage asset management and private equity institutions have also launched subscriptions / applications for their own products.

Li Lifeng said that the above-mentioned self-purchasing behavior can hedge potential redemption pressure to a certain extent, while boosting market confidence.

  Last week, the potential net inflow of northbound funds was 300.

$ 5.9 billion is also an important incremental fund in the market.

According to the analysis of CITIC Securities, the above-mentioned median of US $ 30 billion is a net allocation of funds of approximately 24.4 billion US dollars, and a net amount of funds of a transaction type is approximately US $ 3.9 billion.About 99 million yuan.

  CITIC Securities judged that after the market overhaul, it is expected that the additional inflow will return to the average.

At the same time, fund self-purchase helps stabilize expectations, and public fundraising foundations continue to play the role of market stabilizers.

  The theme of science and technology will continue to interpret the main line of the A share valuation after repair. The views of major institutions are quite consistent, that is, technology stocks.

  Haitong Securities said that from the annual forecast data disclosed this time, the performance of GEM companies representing technology stocks has rebounded as a whole.

In the market structure of the market consolidation period, the three industries of TMT, pharmaceuticals, power equipment and new energy concentrated on the ChiNext stock are expected to lead.

  China Merchants Securities Zhang Xia’s strategy team stated that from an industry perspective, the technology sector is still in an upward cycle, and the demand for information technology will further increase in the future. 5G will drive technological progress, which will further improve the ability to provide technology, while the 2C end information consumptionThe acceleration of information construction at the 2B end, because the demand for science and technology has further increased, forming a resonance of technology supply capacity and demand.

Regardless of short-term fluctuations, it firmly believes that the technology sector will be the upward direction of the next few quarters, and it is worth paying attention to.

  Guosheng Securities Zhang Qiyao’s strategy team analyzed that the science and technology board is expected to become one of the “main battlefields” of A shares in the future.

Guosheng Securities said that the future will be a big era of equity financing, and the science and technology board will usher in historical possibilities.

In the future, the number of enterprises, the weight ratio and the segmentation of the science and technology board will continue to increase.

In fact, the science and technology board will attract more and more institutional investors to participate, and it will inevitably become one of the “main battlefields” of A shares and an important source of excess income.  Guosheng Securities said that reviewing last week’s performance, the Science and Technology Board also experienced a short collective retreat before the Spring Festival, but it quickly recovered its losses and reached a new high in the first week after the festival.

From February 3rd to 7th, the average growth rate of the stocks of the science and technology board reached 3.

26%, second only to the GEM index.